Disaster or Not a Disaster?

What exactly constitutes a disaster? What is it that turns an event such as an earthquake or a tsunami or a meteorite striking earth into a bona fide disaster? And if it is a "real" disaster, how do I take myself out of the equation?

Good questions, all of them.

Let me do a little role play to explain my thoughts on this topic. This will be kind of like playing chess against myself, because I'm going to fill in both sides of the conversation, alternately asking and then answering a series of questions. Okay, here we go.

Is a hurricane a disaster?

            Nope.

Is a tornado a disaster?

            No again.

Is an earthquake a disaster?

            I would say no.

Is a tsunami a disaster?

            Naw.

Is a drought a disaster?

            Why do you keep asking this silly question when the answer is always no?

Okay, how about a wildfire — is that a disaster? Or how about if a large meteor hits the planet…surely that would be a disaster, wouldn’t it?

I give up. You are obviously not paying attention. Hurricanes, tornados, blizzards, droughts, and floods are primarily meteorological events. Earthquakes and tsunamis are geological events. Wildfires…well, I’m not sure exactly how to categorize that one, but it is not a disaster. And a meteor hitting a planet, I’ll call that an astronomical event. Still not a disaster.

You’re nuts! You must have your head in the sand to not recognize all these events as disasters.

Well, let’s examine the meaning of disaster for a minute. All of the above-mentioned events can occur without causing the least bit of inconvenience for people. It’s only when people become involved in these events that it becomes a disaster. So, in my opinion, it isn’t the earthquake or tsunami or flood, etc. that is the disaster. YOU are the disaster, because it’s only when YOU (or other people) become caught up in one of these events that it becomes a disaster. It’s the old, “if a tree falls in the forest” question. If a tsunami hits the coast but there’s nobody there to notice, how do you call that a disaster?

            People are the ingredient that creates a disaster out of a purely natural event.

When the meteorite hit uninhabited Arizona 50,000 years ago (resulting in the world-famous Meteor Crater), it was no disaster because there was nobody there. Now, if a meteorite hits New York City tomorrow…that’s a disaster.

That makes sense.

I can say it another way — Cars don’t kill people…drunk drivers in cars kill people. Without the people (either behind the wheel or in the path of the car), the car can’t kill anybody.

The same concept applies to every sort of event that we commonly call disasters. If nobody’s there, it’s no big deal.

But obviously, in today’s world those types of events often impact populations. And the larger the population, the greater the disaster.  So, how do I take myself out of the equation?

Here’s something to think about — if a flood, wildfire or any of those other things swept through your neighborhood, how would that impact the people living there?

To help answer that question, I have a Big Ten list:

·      Housing

·      Food

·      Water

·      Warmth

·      Clothing

·      Medical supplies

·      Sanitary supplies

·      Communication

·      Transportation

·      Security

There is no doubt the loss of those things would have a dramatic impact on your life.

So, how do I survive such an event?

Personal preparation is the key. Don’t expect FEMA or anybody else to take responsibility for your personal welfare — that’s your job. 

Doom From The Sky?

What are the chances that a solar storm could cause devastating damage to Earth? (Sounds almost like a weird science fiction question, doesn't it?)

According to a new estimate published in the journal Space Weather, the chance of us being hit with an "extreme" solar flare sometime in the next 10 years is one chance in eight — about 12%.

Back in 1859, the most powerful solar storm on record wreaked havoc on what little bit of crude electrical infrastructure that existed at that time, lighting telegraph wires on fire and even causing fires in some of the telegraph offices. While residents of the northern climes are accustomed to seeing the "northern lights" during periods of solar activity, this event caused observers in Cuba to report that the night sky "appeared stained with blood." If that kind of event happened today, with our enormous dependence on an electronic infrastructure, the result would be devastating.

More recently, a solar event in March 1989 knocked out the power to millions of people in Quebec for approximately 9 hours. Experts say that a stronger storm could have catastrophic consequences. In 2008, the National Academy of Sciences reported that the United States is not prepared to "cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina.'"

The potential for permanent damage to power transformers and other electrical systems could cost upwards of $2 trillion to repair, and take up to 10 years for a full recovery, according to a report by the National Academy of Sciences.

So why bring up this subject now? Because right at the moment, we are in the middle of some exceptional solar storm activity that produced a huge X1 solar flare monster. Flares are classified as (weakest to strongest) B, C, M, and X. Each class has 9 sub classes ranging from 1 to 9. An X1 is not the most powerful, but is still very strong — strong enough to impact our lives on Earth.

What would it look like if a massive solar storm hit us? Well, for one thing it would look dark. It would be lights-out. And it would be quiet, with all communications shut down. Might even promote fuel saving because transportation would come to a halt.

That's all "worst case" of course, but think about what you would do if what the scientists are saying actually comes true. What alternatives would you turn to if there were no electricity in your life?

Just something to ponder…and then make plans for. Because the space scientists are saying it's not a matter of "if" — it's only a matter of "when."

Water for Survival — What's Your Plan?

A couple days ago, I posted six possible solutions for purifying drinking water, asking readers to ponder the right answer. So now let's examine each of those possibilities.

1. Boiling for 5 minutes at sea level and one additional minute for each 1000 feet of elevation.

• This is the age-old recommendation that goes back to the era of hobnail boots and chamois shirts, but it is no longer the doctrine. First of all, boiling is intended to kill organic contaminants such as bacteria, virus, cysts, fungus, etc in the water, and it doesn't take 5 minutes at sea level to do the job. One minute is sufficient. However, the theory about adding another minute for each 1000 feet of elevation gain adds a safety margin because water boils at a temperature less than 212ºF as altitude increases. 

2. Filtering with a sub-micron ceramic filter system.

• This is a good start, but there are better systems available today than the old ceramic block technique.  Sawyer (www.sawyer.com) makes what I consider to be the best water filter systems on the market, and they use a hollow fiber membrane that not only far exceeds the capability of ceramic blocks to filter out small stuff, but can also be back-flushed to reboot their ability to keep on filtering for up to a million gallons (company guarantee).

3. Exposure to a UV light source.

• UV radiation, at certain frequencies, has the ability to disrupt the RNA of organisms, leaving them unable to reproduce. If a "bug" can't reproduce, it can't harm you, even if you ingest it. That's the concept behind UV water treatment. The problem I see with this, as a personal water treatment system, is two-fold — first, the components are fragile; second, the system requires a power source that may or may not be available when you need it most. 

4. Treatment with chlorine or iodine.

• Chemical purification of water is another age-old technique with a solid track record, but problems persist. These chemicals are toxic — that's how they kill the bad organisms in the water. But they're also toxic to humans, in some degree. How much of that do you want to ingest? Iodine, in particular, is potentially lethal to sensitive individuals who have allergies to this substance. Not only that, but these chemicals have a shelf life, and they work slowly if the water is cold or turbid, so effectiveness is impaired. 

5. Distillation.

• There is a myth about distillation that it removes all the bad properties from water, leaving it pristine. Not so. Some contaminants can actually be carried through the system and deposited on the far side. Okay, so that's a technicality. But another problem with distillation is that it requires a lot of heat energy and/or time to accomplish in sufficient quantities to keep you alive. 

6. Other.

• So what else is there? Well, there's pasteurization. Everybody knows boiling kills organisms, but very few are aware that you can kill them at a temperature far below boiling. At 160ºF, 90% of waterborne pathogens will be killed in one minute. Keep the water at that temperature for 5 minutes and you'll achieve a 99% reduction of pathogens. A solar cooker can easily bring water to that temperature, but only if the weather permits the use of the solar appliance. 

I should mention that, of all these techniques, only filtration removes inorganic contaminants. In fact, boiling actually increases the concentration of the inorganic compounds due to water loss. And, it's not always easy to get a fire started often enough to satisfy your needs for drinkable water in a survival situation — especially if you're on the move.

What's Your Plan?

From time to time, I'm going to post a "what's your plan?" segment so we can talk about different types of survival situations. This time, it's about water.

Next to air to breathe, water is probably the most urgently needed resource for long-term survival. Yes, there are other factors that can leap ahead of water for short-term survival — shelter from severe elements, first aid for serious blood loss injury, etc. But beyond that type of immediate need, water rises to the top of the priority list if you hope to survive more than a few days. So, what will you do if your access to drinkable water is interrupted?

Assume that your normal source of drinking water is disabled for an extended period of time — let's say a few weeks — before it can be restored. This could happen in any number of ways, including severe contamination (either accidental or intentional) requiring a total dismantling, scrubbing, and rebuilding of the system; a massive natural disaster such as a major hurricane, earthquake, tsunami; an act of war such as an EMP, or a widespread pandemic that forces everyone (including the folks who work at the water treatment plant) into quarantine.

What is your plan to stay alive when your normal source of potable water is cut off? Do you have a plan? Do you know how to purify water that has been contaminated with organic and/or inorganic pollutants? Do you already own the equipment you'll need to purify and store sufficient drinking water for your needs? If so, have you practiced using it?

To help you work through this issue, here's a little pop quiz: What is the best way to purify water for drinking?

1. Boiling for 5 minutes at sea level and one additional minute for each 1000 feet of elevation
2. Filtering with a sub-micron ceramic filter system
3. Exposure to a UV light source
4. Treatment with chlorine or iodine
5. Distillation
6. Other

I'll let you work on this question, and post your comments. Then I'll examine all six of these possible answers and work toward a conclusion in my next post. 

Survive a School Shooting

The tragedy at Chardon High School is another reminder that it's open season for criminals or wackos to bring guns on campus and shoot whomever they want.

I say it's open season because schools have declared themselves to be "off limits" for carrying firearms. That means law-abiding folks have been disarmed and left at the mercy of those who don't care what the law says. The old saying is true: when guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.

Pardon me for including the cry-baby "outsider" kids in the category of outlaws, but that's exactly what they area. You won't find me shedding any tears of sympathy for the nut-job students who get it in their head that it's okay to bring guns to school and shoot the place up because they weren't included in the popular peer group, or even because they were bullied. Hell, I was bullied when I was a kid. Any kid who wasn't a bully got bullied by the jerks who were. But back in my day we just took our knocks then sucked it up and toughed it out until we grew up and got strong enough to defend ourselves. Nobody shot anybody, at least I never heard about it happening.

But today, school shootings are, unfortunately, not uncommon. In a report on FoxNews.com by Larry Banaszak, chief of police at Otterbein University, he said, "At a recent FBI training that I attended, the agent commented that more people are killed by gunfire in our schools than by fires or tornados."

I'm not sure about those statistics, but apparently the problem is serious enough that there is training aimed specifically at dealing with this issue.

Then Banaszak went on to describe the shooter-on-campus survival concepts that are now taught at his university: "There are three basic survival responses," he said, "run, hide and barricade, then as a last resort attack the shooter."

That final option is very interesting. It goes like this — the first person who notices that someone has a gun yells GUN, then everyone else in the room starts throwing stuff at the attacker, books, chairs, tables, whatever is handy, aiming for the bad guy's face and eyes. That is intended to cause him to flinch, denying him the opportunity to take aim at anyone in particular.

During that exact moment, occupants of the besieged room rush the gunman, swarming and tackling him. The first few people in the swarm attack the assailant's gun hand, slamming it to the ground. Other swarmers pile on the gunman's body, holding him down while the first ones strip the gun away.

Students at the university are taught  to place belts, t-shirts, etc. around the shooter's throat and into his nose, mouth and eyes to disrupt his ability to breathe and see. Meanwhile, someone is calling the police. The swarmers remain on top of the gunman until police arrive, allowing him to breathe, but nothing else.

This tactic has its critics, but when asked to come up with an alternative, they don't have anything to suggest. You can either sit there like a fish in a barrel and get shot, or you can take action to disarm the intruder. Personally, if I'm going down, at least I'm going down fighting.

Until schools wise up and allow (in fact require) qualified personnel to carry defensive weapons on campus so they can stop a shooter with a well-placed double-tap, that venue will remain safe hunting ground for anyone who decides to stroll into the classroom and start executing helpless targets of opportunity.

At least the swarm concept gives the victims a fighting chance to save themselves. And, by the way, the "attack the shooter" tactic can be used anywhere — a store, a fast food restaurant, etc., not only at school.

I applaud Banaszak and the Otterbein University for taking these steps toward protecting their students.

Prepare For Emergencies

Imagine being a passenger in an airplane when an emergency happens. Right about then, I would hope the pilot had been trained exhaustively in the science of how to handle emergencies.

When I was going through Jump School in the Army, we spent a full day under the direction of Colonel Welch in a class called "malfunctions." The course was designed to educate us new paratroopers about every conceivable thing that could possibly go wrong — with the aircraft, with our parachutes, with other jumpers on the plane or in the air.

What do you do if the plane crashes on takeoff? What do you do if the plane catches fire while on the way to the drop zone? What do you do if the engines fail? What do you do if another jumper collapses before making it to the jump door? What do you do if your parachute gets fouled in any number of ways?

We spent about 8 hours being drilled about all the contingencies, because those were the procedures that would save our lives if an emergency happened.

I'm convinced the same concept should be applied to preparing for survival emergencies right here on the ground. Emergency situations come in all shapes and sizes, but having thought about what you would do under a variety of conditions will place you in a better position to survive.

• What would you do if your house caught fire while you were in the basement…or in the attic…or in the bathtub? Any room, for that matter. 

• What would you do if you had a flat tire on a dark and stormy night in a bad neighborhood?

• What would you do if a tanker truck overturned on the freeway upwind of your home, spilling toxic chemicals into the atmosphere?

• What would you do if your fishing boat overturned on the lake, dumping you into near-freezing water?

• What would you do if three men wearing ski masks burst through your door and took your wife and children hostage at gunpoint?

• What would you do if a man walked up to your car window while you were stopped at a red light and pointed a gun at you, demanding that you open the door?

• What would you do if your friend suddenly grasped at his chest and collapsed to the floor?

• What would you do if the power was knocked out permanently by an EMP, destroying even your auxiliary power generator?

Okay, I'll stop. But the point I want to make is that it's prudent to consider every eventuality and, inasmuch as possible, prepare yourself to handle them.

You wouldn't want to be a passenger on an airplane being flown by a pilot who had never practiced what to do when an emergency happens. And the same applies to emergencies that happen right here on solid ground.

One final note — during my jump career, I experienced three malfunctions, all of which had been covered in that famous day of training. With precious little time to spare before hitting the ground, my training kicked in and I was able to handle the situations.

Thank you Colonel Welch!

Grizzly Attack

A grizzly bear has you in his sights — not because you came between a mother and her cubs, but just because you're in the wrong place at the wrong time. So, what are you going to do?

If you try to run, you're dead meat. You can't outrun a grizzly, and the very act of running will trigger an attack.

Here's a link to a short video that shows exactly what to do. Note that grizzly bears often "bluff charge" just to scare off whatever is irritating them, without following through with a full-blown attack. If you run, it will chase you down and probably maul you — or worse. If you stand your ground and do not "threaten" the bear, it might do what this bear in the video did — go look for a tree to scratch its back.

Anyway, enjoy the video (there's a short commercial before the video starts, so be patient), and hopefully learn from it.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/1482193676001/?intcmp=features